Sunday, February 1, 2009

On VORP

I like it. Quite a bit, actually. Especially because the WARP stats seem a little shady to me. I don't think you can account for wins since winning a baseball game is a team game. You can, however, account for runs. I just read a blogger who detailed how not good VORP is. I didn't agree.

I suppose that VORP is like any other statistic, though. Fall in love too much with it and it becomes the crutch that batting average and RBIs are today. I'm not in love with it, I suppose. I'd rather use it and OPS+ and WARP3 more than batting average, RBI and home runs. That's all.

VORP also proves the point that hitters are far more valuable than even the best pitchers. And that hitters are far more consistent from year in to year out. I know that seems like conventional wisdom, but I mean, look at most baseball teams. "Pitching is important". Yeah. I get it. But it seems to me that if you're trying to build for long term success, hitting is far easier to project. And to get.

On that note, I like what the Padres did with their ballpark. They can inflate the values of pitchers and trade them off for valuable hitting players. Speaking of which, they should trade Chris Young. He had a .29 GB/FB ratio. That's like, extreme fly ball pitcher. Works in Petco, probably work in Oakland but in, say, Texas? Haha. And they always need pitching. And CY is always injured. It would be a great trade, to move him, especially because his value is somewhat high now.

No comments:

Post a Comment